The Bitter End by John Sides;Chris Tausanovitch;Lynn Vavreck;

Author:John Sides;Chris Tausanovitch;Lynn Vavreck; [Vavreck;, John Sides;Chris Tausanovitch;Lynn]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9780691213453
Publisher: Princeton UP
Published: 2022-07-04T00:00:00+00:00

PERPETUAL POLARIZATION

Even if differences in overall outcomes between 2016 and 2020 were small, the differences that did exist were consequential. In particular, the overall stability across counties and individuals concealed changes in the candidates’ coalitions, including Biden’s stronger performance among white voters with college degrees as well as Trump’s stronger performance among Black and Latino voters. By one estimate, Trump did 3 percentage points better among Black voters and 8 percentage points better among Latino voters than he did in 2016. The fact that Trump could do better with these voters after four years of hard-line policies on immigration and civil rights surprised many observers. The difference among Latino voters was particularly striking and seemed to hurt Democratic candidates in many places, from south Florida to the Rio Grande Valley. To be sure, voters of color still favored Democrats by a substantial margin and they were integral to Biden’s coalition and thus his victory. But few expected Biden to do worse than Clinton. One New York Times headline summed it up: “Liberals Envisioned a Multiracial Coalition. Voters of Color Had Other Ideas.”13

What helps explain these changes in the candidates’ coalitions is the same polarization that has been ongoing in American politics for decades but intensified between 2016 and 2020. Americans perceived even more ideological polarization between the two parties and became more polarized themselves. Their own political ideology and issue positions became even more strongly related to their vote in 2020 than in 2016. This was true across a range of racial and ethnic groups. In fact, as we will show, this ideological polarization helps account for Trump’s surprisingly stronger performance among Latino voters, many of whom are conservative.

Changing perceptions of the political parties are visible first in how Americans’ perceptions of Donald Trump’s politics changed. Throughout his presidency, many more Americans came to see him as conservative. This is the logical consequence of how he governed. As we discussed in chapter 2, Trump’s ideologically ambiguous campaign, where he flirted with ideas like taxing the wealthy, gave way to a conservative agenda as president.

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